Boise & Treasure Valley Housing Market Forecast: 2025–2026

Well, folks, it's time to roll up our sleeves and dive into the nitty-gritty of what's happening in the Boise and Treasure Valley housing market as we navigate through 2025 and set our sights on 2026. Spoiler alert: it's a mixed bag of opportunities and challenges, so let's break it down.

🏡 Boise & Treasure Valley: The Local Scene

Home Prices:
Boise's average home value has nudged up to $504,848, marking a modest 1.9% increase year-over-year. The median sale price sits at $487,333, with homes typically going under contract in about 8 days .

Inventory & Sales:
Inventory has seen a slight uptick, with a 2.27-month supply, indicating a market that's leaning towards balance but still favoring sellers . However, the total number of home sales has dipped, suggesting buyers are becoming more selective.

Mortgage Rates:
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the area is hovering around 6.72%, slightly down from earlier in the year . While not historically high, these rates are impacting affordability and buyer enthusiasm.

🏘️ Neighborhood Highlights

  • Meridian: Median sale price at $520,133, with homes selling in about 13 days. The market here is steady, with a slight year-over-year price increase.

  • Nampa: More affordable options with a median sale price of $411,417, attracting buyers seeking value without sacrificing amenities .

  • Caldwell: Median sale price around $393,995, offering opportunities for first-time homebuyers and investors .

📈 National Market Overview

Home Prices:
Nationally, home prices are experiencing a slight decline, with a projected 1.4% decrease in 2025. This cooling trend is providing some relief to buyers after years of rapid appreciation.(1st Choice Mortgage Company, LLC)

Home Sales:
Existing home sales are expected to reach approximately 4.12 million in 2025, a modest 1.4% increase from 2024. New home sales are experiencing a surge, with a 10.9% increase in April 2025, reaching the highest level since February 2022.

Mortgage Rates:
The national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage rate has risen to 6.89%, the highest since early February 2025. Rates are expected to fluctuate between 6% and 7% throughout 2025.

🔮 Looking Ahead to 2026

  • Sales Growth: The National Association of Realtors forecasts a 6% rise in existing-home sales in 2025 and an 11% increase in 2026.

  • Price Appreciation: Home prices are expected to grow by 3% in 2025 and 4% in 2026.

💡 Key Takeaways

  • For Buyers: The market is becoming more favorable, with increased inventory and stabilizing prices. However, mortgage rates remain a significant factor in affordability.

  • For Sellers: While the market is cooling, well-priced and well-presented homes are still attracting buyers. Flexibility and strategic pricing are key.

  • For Investors: Opportunities exist, especially in emerging neighborhoods and with properties that can be improved or repurposed.

Final Thoughts

The Boise and Treasure Valley housing market is transitioning towards a more balanced state. While challenges like mortgage rates and affordability persist, opportunities abound for those ready to navigate the evolving landscape.

Need personalized advice or insights? Feel free to reach out. Let's chart your course in this dynamic market together!